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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.